neverfull louis vuitton: 十一月 2013

2013年11月21日星期四

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Yup, he’s one of those 60 crucial votes on health care.louis vuitton handbags for sale And like most of his colleagues, he’s got some demands. Gotta love this AP lede: WASHINGTON ?? For Democrats determined to get a health care bill, Sen. Roland Burris is like the house guest who couldn’t be refused, won’t soon be leaving and poses a plausible threat of ruining holiday dinner. Suddenly, he can no longer be ignored.fake louis vuitton The Illinois Democrat, appointed by disgraced former Gov. Rod Blagojevich, says he’ll only vote for a bill to provide health care to millions more Americans as long as it allows the government to sell insurance in competition with private insurers. And he says he won’t compromise. “I would not support a bill that does not have a public option,” Burris, 72, said in a recent interview with The Associated Press.louis vuitton belts “That position will not change.
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The Capitol Hill dual loyalty dilemma–national interest vs.louis vuitton handbags for sale provincial interest–is clearly displayed in this quote from Sen. Harry Reid, who as the top Democrat in the Senate is responsible for getting health reform to President Obama’s desk. ??I make absolutely no apologies,” he says, “none – - for helping people in my state.?? The help in question is a provision in the health reform bill, inserted by Reid, that will make sure Nevada won’t face higher Medicaid costs, even though Texas, Vermont, California and 43 other states will.louis vuitton backpack for sale Bloomberg has the details: The plan calls for ??full federal funding?? of Medicaid for new beneficiaries in only those states that had unemployment rates of at least 12 percent in August and whose Medicaid enrollment is below the national average. Only Nevada, Rhode Island, Michigan and Oregon meet that criteria. That prompted complaints from other lawmakers that their states would have to pay more. As John McCain liked to say on the campaign trail, “That’s not change we can believe in.louis vuitton neverfull” But wait, there’s more. As the Bloomberg story notes, unions have secured from union-friendly Senators exemptions from the new tax on high-value health insurance plans. And Florida’s Bill Nelson has secured about $5 billion for people who currently receive Medicare Advantage, which is due to be severely cut back in the new bill. But Nelson’s provision is not earmarked for just Florida.handbags louis vuitton The measure doesn??t identify which states could get the $5 billion. The language is so confusing — those eligible include retirees in ??counties where the MA benchmark amount in 2011 is equal to the legacy urban floor amount?? — that even congressional aides said they aren??t sure. Read the entire Bloomberg story here.
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The $247 billion bribe bill to help the nation??s doctors may be stalling out on the Senate floor this week (here??s my story).louis vuitton backpack for sale But Dems have won at least one concession from the group: an agreement not to push for the inclusion of medical liability reform in the broader bill. From Rebecca J. Patchin, M.D.handbags louis vuitton, board chair of the AMA: “The AMA is committed to medical liability reform that keeps physicians caring for patients in need, and we are also working to make health reform a reality this year.? As we work to achieve these goals, the reality is that there are nowhere near 60 Senators ready to vote for federal caps on non-economic damages, nor were there the votes when Republicans controlled both Congress and the White House.? The medical profession made a significant step forward this year as a direct result of AMA advocacy on medical liability reform. For the first time, the government is directing $25 million to the states to implement and test promising liability reforms like health courts and safe harbors.replica gucci shoes
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2013年11月20日星期三

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The most fascinating part of this video showing law student Barack Obama speaking to a rally at Harvard in 1991 is how much he speaks like, well, President Barack Obama in 2012.louis vuitton backpack for sale Now compare that young man with the rhetorical style that a Senate candidate brought to the Democratic National Convention in 2004. For what it’s worth, some on the right are trying to label Derrick Bell “the Jeremiah Wright of academia,” which is an inflammatory comparison that is neither informative or meaningful. Bell was the first tenured black professor at Harvard Law School, and a pioneer in his field, which helped change the way the law viewed civil rights and created a new academic discipline, Critical Race Theory. Nor is it newsworthy that Obama was a fan of Bell and his work.ugg boots outlet Bell’s 2011 obituary in the New York Times, which is a great place to start to get an overview of his impact, quotes Obama “at a rally while a student at Harvard Law” comparing Bell to the civil rights legend Rosa Parks.
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Politics, like baseball, isn’t fair.chanel handbags for sale In 2011, the New York Yankees had a total payroll of $202 million, nearly six times as much as the payroll for the Kansas City Royals, who had to put the same number of players on the field and play just as many regular-season games. The Yankees, as you know, won more often, but at a much higher cost: it cost New York more than $2 million per regular-season win, while Kansas City got by with a cost per win of just $508,817. In the same way, Mitt Romney has won more than half of the delegates to date in the ongoing Republican nominating contest and a greater share of the total vote than any of his rivals. But like the Yankees, he has done it with a far larger payroll, and a far bigger cost per vote.louis vuitton belts?Through the first 23 contests, Romney has persuaded about 3.2 million people to vote or caucus for him. That compares favorably with the 2 million who have come out for Rick Santorum, the 1.8 million who have come out for Newt Gingrich and the 926,331 who have rallied around Ron Paul.gucci outlet online According to the Washington Post??s tally of television advertising, Romney and the PACs supporting him have put up about $33.5 million in ads so far. The numbers for his rivals, including supportive PACs, are much smaller: $4.4 million for Santorum, $6.louis vuitton belts9 million for Gingrich and $3 million for Paul. So counting only?TV spending, what is Romney’s cost per vote? $10.43, which is nearly three times the $3.89 that Gingrich and his allies spent, more than three times the $3.fake louis vuitton shoes33 from Paul and company and nearly five times the $2.14 for Santorum. But campaign ads are an imperfect measure of a campaign’s total operation. If we look at how much the candidates have spent so far from their campaign accounts, we get another way of looking at the race.fake louis vuitton shoes Through the most recent disclosure, the Romney campaign has spent $55 million to date. The Gingrich campaign has spent $16 million. The Paul campaign has spent $29 million. And the Santorum campaign has spent about $5 million.louis vuitton speedy So how much has the entire Romney campaign spent per vote received? $17.14, which is a lot more than the $2.54 that Santorum spent, or the $9.05 that Gingrich has spent, and topped only?by the $31.louis vuitton outlet online55 that Paul spent. What do these numbers tell us? Both a lot and a little. We can say convincingly that Santorum has been overperforming, compared with the field, while Romney has been underperforming. If Romney were a corporation, it would hire a Bain consultant to come in and figure out how to reduce its cost per vote.handbags louis vuitton But politics is not business, and there is often no shame in having the largest operation. In 2008, Barack Obama’s campaign spent twice as much as John McCain’s campaign and won in the polls by only?7 points. But a big part of what Obama spent was a result of his abilities as a small-dollar fundraiser, not in spite of his poor performance as a candidate. It is also true that Romney’s big early spending gives him a huge advantage over the other Republican candidates, should he win the nomination.fake uggs He is the only one with a campaign that is ready to pivot to the general election. That said, one can wonder what it would be like if politics and baseball were fair. Would the Kansas City Royals be making the playoffs more often if the MLB had a salary cap? Would Santorum be coasting to the nomination if spending were equalized? Debate among yourselves. It won’t change anything.louis vuitton speedy The game is not fair.
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When will the U.louis vuitton handbags for saleS. go to war with Iran? That question was on the minds of President Barack Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at their summit this week in Washington, as?Massimo Calabresi and I write in this week??s dead tree version of the magazine. Perhaps the smartest answer I??ve heard on the Iran timeline comes from Dennis Ross, who until November was thinking about these issues full time at Obama’s National Security Council. ??The use of force is likely when the world??s reaction to Iran will continue to be the same after the use of force than before it.fake chanel shoes It??s crucial to sustain isolation and pressure,?? Ross says. ??This isn??t just Israel against Iran, it??s the world against Iran.?? In other words, having worked so painstakingly hard to forge a fragile near-global alliance against Iran, the U.S.fake louis vuitton and Israel would not lightly discard diplomacy until absolutely necessary and by that time the circumstances would be so extreme that most other countries in the world would accept a strike. Ross notes that the Israelis are on a timetable of their own, so a unilateral strike isn??t out of the realm of possibility. However, he added, ??If the Israelis were so anxious to use force, they would??ve done it a long time ago.?? Waiting for much of the rest of the world to be comfortable? with the U.louis vuitton handbags for saleS. or NATO bombing Iran might take years, if ever. But who would??ve thought a year ago that Europe would willingly boycott Iranian oil and that even China could be coaxed to shop elsewhere for its crude? Iran seems to be fully aware of its increasing isolation in the world. Last week, Iran said it would grant inspectors access to the Parchin military research facility, where International Atomic Energy Agency? inspectors were denied access last month.louis vuitton shoes replica (There are reports that Iran is scrubbing the area up before granting access). And this week, Khamenei responded to Obama??s Tuesday press conference in which the President pledged to focus on diplomacy as ??good words? a sign of being no longer in delusion,?? adding there is a ??window of opportunity for diplomacy.?? So, is Iran on the cusp of willingly giving up its nuclear ambitions? Probably not. But as the world unites against them, leaders in Tehran are realizing that the time Ross speaks about — and he does think a strike is eventually possible — when the world would near consensus on strikes against them, is closer than they??re comfortable with.fake gucci shoes “[Khamenei] has to make a decision on whether ceding to the U.S. is worth it vis-?-vis the sanctions or if it threatens his hold on power,” says Ross. For the moment, it looks like Khamenei’s betting, even if it’s just a play for time, that diplomacy is the smart move.handbags louis vuitton
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Facing the potentially insurmountable challenge of a slow economic recovery in an election year, Democrats have looked for little ways to gain political advantage over Republicans in 2012.fake gucci shoes Some of their efforts have bombed, like their rejection of the Keystone XL pipeline just as gas prices spiked. Others have gone nowhere, like their efforts to shame Republicans in Congress into supporting further stimulus. But a few bunts have turned into extra base hits. Here are some of their more successful gambits, along with one that has yet to play out.louis vuitton handbags for sale Voting Rights: Attorney General Eric Holder??s big roll-out on voting rights hasn??t done much to change the conversation nationally, but a by-product of the Administration??s efforts yielded fruit. In Texas, which reliably votes Republican in the presidential election, Democrats fought a post-2010 census redistricting plan that would have resulted in a gain of 2-4 seats for Republicans in the House. By chance, the ensuing legal mess ended up pushing the Texas primary from Super Tuesday all the way back to May, possibly further. The upshot, as luck would have it for the Dems, was to prolong the GOP primary season by dragging out the contest between Santorum and Gingrich to be the South??s favorite non-Romney.chanel outlet (PHOTOS: On the Trail with Mitt Romney) Housing: After the 2010 robo-signing scandal, a brief surge of public outrage united all 50 state attorneys general in an investigation of big banks?? handling of mortgages. The investigation turned into negotiations over a multi-billion dollar settlement that would protect the banks from state and federal prosecution on some issues in exchange for a big payout to homeowners, but the negotiations stalled as liberal and conservative attorneys general bolted when things didn??t go their way. Realizing late last summer that the entire project could die, the Obama Administration stepped in and through a combination of deal making and flattery reunited nearly all of the AGs behind a deal. In the process, the Administration delivered the biggest settlement? for aggrieved homeowners–$1,500 to $2,000 for anyone evicted who claims their foreclosure was mishandled??and a large infusion of money for state programs aimed at easing the consequences of the housing crisis.louis vuitton handbags for sale Although the deal is unlikely to do much for homeowners in the grand scheme of things, it got the banks to cough up billions for an Administration-run program, allowing Obama to claim he fought the banks and delivered for homeowners. Women??s Issues: Democrats’ biggest win so far started out as a defensive maneuver. The GOP has, of course, been looking for its own winning issues this year and had spent months planning their move against what they called Obama??s war on religion. At first it looked like a winner for the GOP.replica louis vuitton When Obama announced that religious institutions would have to cover contraception for employees, the GOP pushed back amid an outcry from the Catholic church. But then the GOP overplayed its hand. The Administration backed down, shifting the payments for contraception to the insurance companies, the GOP charged ahead with hearings, and the Democrats started looking for witnesses to make their case. That??s how they found Sandra Fluke.gucci handbag for sale With a little help from Rush Limbaugh??well, a lot of help??the Dems managed to turn a losing war-on-religion issue into a winning war-on-women one. (MORE: Mitt Romney’s Primary Campaign Won’t Overshadow His Presidential Bid) The Administration has some other moves planned. The most visible is on ObamaCare. Last year they made the decision? to push for a ruling by the Supreme Court on Obama’s signature health care reform bill before the election, rather than waiting until afterward.fake gucci shoes The Administration thinks it has a base-motivating winner no matter what the outcome, but Obama has good reason to think he may win??several powerful conservative judges have ruled the law constitutional. On the other hand, the record shows so far that for both sides this year, big wins and big losses have come as much by chance as by planning.
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There are two realities on the campaign trail: the one visible to dispassionate observers, and the reality the candidate inhabits.fake ugg boots In Newt Gingrich’s bubble, Super Tuesday was a triumph: the benchmark he set was to win his home state, and he coasted to victory. Remove the rose-colored glasses and the landscape looks uglier. Gingrich won just one in 10 states, and finished dead last in half. Overall, Gingrich has won just 2 of 22 contests thus far, lags a distant third in the unofficial delegate counts, and would need to capture some 70% of the remaining delegates to eclipse Mitt Romney’s edge.fake louis vuitton shoes It would take an “act of God,” one of Romney’s advisers said, for Gingrich or Rick Santorum to prevent Romney’s coronation. The math suggests they can only postpone it. Of course, each rival’s chances increase with the exit of the other, which is why Santorum’s camp is trying to push Gingrich out of the race before the uphill climb to oust Romney gets any steeper. Over the past 48 hours, a chorus of Santorum supporters has called on Gingrich to step aside.fake gucci shoes ??Based on his electoral performance last night and his out-of-step record, it is time for Newt Gingrich to exit the Republican nominating process,?? wrote Stuart Roy, an adviser to the pro-Santorum Red, White and Blue PAC. ??His campaign is an obvious non-starter.?? A cadre of veteran social conservatives backing Santorum — including Gary Bauer, Richard Viguerie and Tony Perkins — have all urged Gingrich to step aside to give movement conservatives a chance to deny Romney the nomination. In an appeal to Gingrich’s vaunted vanity, Perkins suggested the former House Speaker “has never been in a more influential position in deciding the outcome of the nomination; he could be a kingmaker if he stepped out of the race.louis vuitton handbags for sale” But Gingrich’s political obituary has been written before, and he’s not ready to bury his campaign yet. “Despite the many requests by the Washington establishment, I am staying in this race,” he said Wednesday. Again, his campaign has set itself benchmarks to continue: victories next Tuesday in Alabama and Mississippi, Deep South states where Gingrich — who has only won in the South — believes his firebrand style has the greatest resonance. Gingrich canceled a planned trip to Kansas in advance of the state’s caucuses on Saturday to shore up his Southern base.fake gucci shoes Gingrich has been open about a path to the nomination that begins and ends in the South. R.C. Hammond, Gingrich’s spokesman, said this week that the candidate needed to win “everything from Spartanburg [South Carolina] all the way to Texas,” but insisted the race would continue for “months.fake gucci shoes” There are obvious problems with this strategy. First, localizing a campaign in a single region — the?heartland of the Republican Party — undercuts Gingrich’s assertion that he is the only candidate capable of taking to the fight to Barack Obama, whom the GOP nominee will need to beat in swing states (and red states that Obama turned blue in 2008). Alabama and Mississippi also allocate delegates proportionally, so it will be difficult for Gingrich to make up much ground even if he revives his campaign there. And that’s hardly a guarantee.louis vuitton handbags for sale Despite the import he’s accorded the Alabama primary, Gingrich came in third in the first two polls out of the state; an Alabama State survey released Wednesday (which curiously omitted Ron Paul) showed Gingrich nine points behind Santorum, and a poll released Thursday by the Alabama Education Association showed him 10 points behind Romney. Santorum’s super PAC has purchased TV time in both states in an attempt to finish Newt off. “Newt has become a hindrance to a conservative alternative,” Roy of the Red, White and Blue PAC said. It may make little sense for Gingrich to get out now, however.louis vuitton outlet online With Sheldon Adelson footing his TV budget, Newt needs only to maintain enough cash to ferry him around the country, where his message can speak for itself. There is little incentive to bow out when he can keep collecting delegates on the cheap, thereby increasing his leverage when it comes time to barter down the line. Even if he were to exit, Gingrich’s supporters wouldn’t necessarily file into Santorum’s column. Crunching the numbers from polls that asked about voters’ runner-up preferences, Nate Silver estimates that 57% of Gingrich fans would migrate to Santorum, with 27% lining up behind Romney and 16% picking Paul.replica chanel shoes (As Silver notes, the model ignores that some likely wouldn’t vote at all.) That would be a significant boost to Santorum. But at this point, having confined his campaign to states where he has a viable chance of winning, Gingrich’s share of the vote in many others is essentially negligible; according to Silver’s model, his absence wouldn’t, for example, have changed the outcome in Michigan, where Romney won an uncomfortably close three-point victory. Whether or not he can notch the necessary victories next week, Gingrich will soon be forced to consider how the terms on which he exits the race will affect the goals with which he entered it.replica chanel shoes Gingrich had been out of government almost 15 years when he entered the fray, long enough that a chunk of the new party establishment — and much of the national press corps — never witnessed him at the height of his powers. For a long time, his bid was maligned by the press as a glorified book tour, a way to soak up the national spotlight and convert the exposure into cash. But in many ways, Gingrich has burnished his standing in the party, with a knack for rhetorical flourishes and forceful rhetoric that none of his rivals can match. “He’s the only guy left who’s a real performer, who’s got the ability to whip up a crowd,” says a senior adviser to a rival campaign.gucci handbag for sale Gingrich knows he possesses this gift, and as long as he has it, he will go on trying to convince the party to buy into reality as he sees it.
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One of the challenges to economic recovery in the U.replica chanel shoesS. has been the glut of houses on the market as a result of the burst housing bubble that caused the great recession in the first place. A robust, job-creating recovery typically relies heavily on the construction sector for a substantial portion of the jobs created–I’ve seen numbers in the area of 25%. So some economists are tempering the positive economic trend by pointing out just how much of an albatross the housing sector still is.replica gucci shoes Friday’s jobs number continues the good news/bad news drift. On the one hand, employment is improving rapidly among 25-34 year-olds, the prime age group for housing demand. 74.7% were employed in February, where only 73.fake louis vuitton9% were employed a year ago. The unemployment rate for this group dropped from 9% in January to 8.7% in February. Likewise, construction employment was up 2.fake louis vuitton shoes5% compared to three months ago, a slight improvement over other job creation during the same period. But that’s not enough to pull the economy out of the housing ditch its in, says Jed Kolko, chief economist and head of analytics at Trulia. “Today??s jobs report means housing demand will pick up: as young people go back to work, they??ll be able to rent their own place or start saving for a downpayment. Construction is picking up, too, but not fast enough to lead the recovery.ugg boots outlet To get back to its traditional share of jobs, construction needs to catch up from its long slowdown by outpacing overall growth. Right now construction employment is keeping pace with the overall economy but not growing fast enough to get back to its normal share.” Similarly, Austan Goolsbee, the former White House economist, expects housing to continue to be a drag on the recovery, and expects GDP to slow in coming months as well. In that scenario, job creation and broader economic recovery flatten over the summer, with the political consequence that Romney’s arguments against Obama gain credence.fake ugg boots
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In April of last year, Michael Grunwald wrote a sharp piece clarifying Barack Obama’s central re-election challenge: The hallmark achievements of his first term have been prophylactic.ugg boots outlet While stopping a recession from becoming a depression, reinforcing a health care infrastructure already groaning under the burden and cost of America’s sick, or thwarting domestic terror plots might sound good, they don’t lend themselves easily to a re-election message. “He is the counterfactual President,” Grunwald wrote. “And as his aides often complain, ‘I prevented a disaster’ is a lousy political slogan. Or as Democratic Congressman Barney Frank of Massachusetts has put it, ‘It would have been even worse without me’ ain’t much of a bumper sticker.handbags louis vuitton” Obama’s chances have always been tethered to the tremulous economy, and it was on that issue that the President had the most difficult case to make. Three and a half years after the financial crisis, unemployment is still? high. Americans never thought much of the $700 billion stimulus program Obama championed. And no matter how eloquent the President might have been? in describing the dire state of things when he took charge or the seeds of disaster he says Republicans sowed in their prior eight years of rule, Obama’s argument could be neutered with four simple words uttered by his opponents to the voting public in 2012: Are you better off? But for the first time in his presidency, there’s a glimmer of a chance that Obama won’t have to rely on this tortured counterfactual.louis vuitton shoes replica February unemployment numbers released Friday showed robust job growth and upward revisions from December and January as well. Payrolls swelled by an average of 245,000 per month over that period. The public sector losses that have put a major drag on employment are tapering off–just 7,000 government jobs were lost in the first two months of the year. A real recovery, in line with historical rates of economic rehabilitation, has finally arrived.fake uggs If it continues, it could shift the burden of the counterfactual to Republicans, completely rebalancing the 2012 presidential race. Mitt Romney (most likely) would have to make the case that things would be much better now if Obama had not hampered the economy with onerous regulation. Rather than asking Americans if they’re better off, he’ll have to dive into the weeds of Big Government gone bad and persuade voters that Obama is not realizing America’s full potential. Romney and his advisers, wary of this eventuality from the outset, are beginning to adjust.louis vuitton shoes replica Where he once described Obama as a nice guy out of his depth, Romney is now preparing a “prosecution” of the President’s economic record and how it has “hurt the middle class, given more and more people concerns about their jobs and prices, and put downward pressure on households.” Persuading Americans that they’re not OK has become part of his task. “Incomes have not risen. Gasoline prices are high,” he recently told CNBC.louis vuitton replica “The idea that everything’s fine out there in America comes from people who are detached from America.” It is not a given that the economy has reached escape velocity from the misery of the Great Recession. Normal employment is a long way off. The Fed continues to expect “modest” economic growth throughout 2012, especially in the summer months.fake gucci shoes A surge in jobless Americans who had previously given up hope could return to the labor force, driving up the unemployment rate. There are enough financial explosives packed into the banks and treasuries of Europe to level the global economy if that continent’s leader are unable to defuse their crisis. Oil prices are high. And there is not sufficient polling data to tell us that the voting public is feeling hale.cheap gucci belts But the last three months have been good. And Obama may finally be able to argue that the last three years were too.
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2013年11月19日星期二

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In his State of the Union address on Tuesday night, President Obama “put colleges and universities on notice.fake louis vuitton” Find a way to stop tuition from going up, he told them, or risk losing federal aid money. Following up on that charge, Obama put forward a proposal on Friday at the University of Michigan that, if passed, would tie federal campus-based aid programs to tuition policies for the first time in history. Under the plan, the Administration would shift aid away from those colleges that fail to keep tuition down in favor of institutions that “do their fair share” to keep tuition affordable. The plan would achieve this by targeting campus-based aid programs??work-study programs, Perkins loans and supplemental grants for low-income students??which accounted for $3 billion of the $142 billion distributed in federal grants and loans annually.louis vuitton handbags for sale The plan proposed increasing that total to $10 billion next year. (MORE: Obama’s State of the Union: An Optimistic President Talks to a Pessimistic Nation) Obama targeted campus-based aid programs, rather than much larger federal aid programs like Pell grants and Stafford loans, because those programs give money to students who can use it at any college, whereas Perkins loans go directly to colleges, where administrators can use the money as they see fit. The plan also outlined a Race to the Top-style competition in which states would compete for $1 billion in prize money, a separate $55 million award for colleges that increase their efficiency, called for a doubling of work-study jobs and materials that will help families determine the true cost of college. The President also called on Congress to extend the interest rate reduction on subsidized Stafford loans as well as the opportunity tax credit, a $2,500 per year tax credit for working families with students who attend college.ugg boots outlet (PHOTOS:?Obama??s State of the Union in Pictures) Incentivizing colleges to lower tuition sounds like a great thing on its face. College students are now taking on more debt than ever to compensate for tuition costs that are increasing twice as fast as inflation??even faster than health care costs. But at the same time, state funding for higher ed has just sustained record-high cutbacks. According to the annual Grapevine report from the Center for the Study of Education Policy at Illinois State University, 41 states cut funding for higher education in response to the slow economic recovery and the end of federal stimulus funds last year.fake ugg boots Overall, in the past year alone, state funding for higher ed decreased by nearly 8%, or $6 billion. As state money declines, many have said the only way for colleges to compensate is for students to foot more of the bill. But if Obama’s plan were to pass, raising tuition wouldn’t be an option if states wanted to receive part of the $10 billion in proposed federal aid. Some higher ed experts fear the plan would force colleges to trade quality for price.louis vuitton replica In the four years since the 2008 financial crisis, many institutions have made the easy cuts. They’ve consolidated campuses, cut programs with low-enrollment, scaled back administrative costs and increased energy efficiency. The options that remain??trimming financial aid, reducing enrollment, increasing class size, cutting back on the number of classes, using adjunct instructors instead of full-time faculty and postponing maintenance projects??can hurt students. Some are taking these steps anyway.gucci outlet online (MORE:?Obama Calls for ??Fairness?? in His Address to ??Stronger?? Union) Maybe institutions are just going to have to get more creative. “Colleges and universities have got to realize this is a long-term problem and we can’t just get all the money from students,” says Joni Finney, professor of higher education at the University of Pennsylvania and the vice president of the non-profit, non-partisan National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education. “Now is the time to think about doing business in unusual ways.” Finney advocates for some lesser-used options for reducing costs, including cutting non-effective programs, using technology more effectively, streamlining curricula so students don’t graduate with more credits than they need (which is common today), upping the number of hours faculty teach, making better use of evenings, weekends and summers, and offering three-year degree programs to well-prepared students.loui vuitton Still, even with changes on campus, Finney agrees with Obama that states must maintain their commitment to higher ed. “States can’t continue to cut,” she says. “They’ve turned to higher ed to make cuts because they knew colleges had another revenue source: tuition, but they can’t continue to rely on that or there will be a tipping point where college enrollment goes down because no one can afford it.” Which is exactly what Obama is trying to avoid.louis vuitton outlet online “Higher education is not a luxury,” the President said in his speech at the University of Michigan. “It’s an economic imperative that every family in America should be able to afford.” But as Congress must approve nearly all of the aspects of the President’s plan, the question remains as to whether colleges and universities will be forced to meet his call. Kayla Webley is a Staff Writer at TIME.chanel handbags for sale Find her on Twitter at @kaylawebley, on Facebook or on Google+. You can also continue the discussion on TIME??s Facebook page and on Twitter at @TIME.
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The two-man race between Mitt Romney, He of the Mandated Health Insurance, and Newt Gingrich, He of the Lunar Janitorial Academy for Kids, has reduced conservative cuticles to nubs.louis vuitton speedy Tea Partyers are threatening to stay home in November and the eminent Bill Kristol has not yet given up his dream of finding a White Knight to lance the doubts of Republicans nationwide and ride onto the convention stage in Tampa as a consensus candidate. So is anybody going to come to dissatisfied Republicans’ rescue? Political science professor Josh Putnam (at the indispensable Frontloading HQ) has pored over the filing deadlines and assorted party arcana to determine whether such a scenario is possible. His conclusion: Technically, it is. Realistically, it ain’t: Who is the candidate who can not only successfully enter the race late, but who can also marshal the organization necessary to cobble together enough delegates to take the nomination or throw enough of a monkeywrench into the process and still maintain support in the party to win the nomination at the convention? Let’s think about this for a moment.fake louis vuitton There are people in this race now actively seeking the nomination (and who have been running for president for quite some time) who cannot get on the ballots in some states. And we are expecting someone to come in and immediately be able to beat these deadlines, organize write-in efforts and uncommitted slates of delegates to get within shouting distance of 1144 or a lower total held by the frontrunner. I apologize, folks. But I just don’t see it.gucci outlet online There is no silver bullet. There is no white knight. So with that put to rest, we can all get back to speculating about a Ron Paul third-party bid.
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January 31 is set up to be a big day in the 2012 presidential presidential campaign.fake gucci shoes Not only will Florida voters go to the polls, possibly sealing the party’s presidential nomination, but most super PACs that have been dominating the airwaves in recent weeks will finally report their donors, revealing for the first time the financial sources for all the attacks. Almost certainly, during all the hoopla of these news events, another big number will be lost in the shuffle. On the day before, the Bureau of Economic Statistics is set to announce at 8:30 a.m.fake chanel shoes new figures for U.S. per-capita personal income growth for December of 2011. Who cares? Read on.ugg boots outlet As I write in this week’s issue of TIME, available to all-access subscribers, presidential elections have a long history of behaving like referendums on the relative strength of the national economy. Bad economies–Jimmy Carter in 1980, George H.W. Bush in 1992–tend to punish the incumbents.gucci handbag for sale Good economies–Richard Nixon in 1972, Ronald Reagan in 1984–tend to reward the incumbents. This is not always the case–think Al Gore in 2000–but the effect is statistically demonstrable. A forthcoming book by political scientists Christopher Wlezian and Robert Erikson, The Timeline of Presidential Elections, reviews the patterns for the last 15 presidential elections and finds that economic fundamentals explain 54% in the difference in election results from cycle to cycle. The political press tends to harp on the unemployment rate as a measure of economic health, but this is problematic.fake louis vuitton shoes The better measure, say those who have run the numbers, is weighted cumulative real income growth on a per capita basis. (Weighted simply means that each quarter closer to an election date counts more than the quarter before.) (MORE: Inside Obama’s World) Which brings us to the January 30 BEA report. It will only be a snapshot, but it is one that matters.replica chanel shoes If the economy is going to recover enough to improve Barack Obama’s chances at reelection, it will have to start happening soon. Wlezian and Erikson also found that the economic fundamentals in April of an election year are generally almost as good a predictor of the final vote as the fundamentals in November. So the question is this: As it now stands, just how bad does the economy look for Obama? The answer is pretty bad, by historic standards. Last fall, Douglas Hibbs Jr.louis vuitton speedy, ran the numbers and found that through the third quarter of last year, the economic performance under Obama predicted the president would get just 44.1% of the popular vote. That number was by no means set in stone, since there were still several quarter to come before the election, and each quarter would count more than the one that preceded it. But Obama does probably need to see a tangible pickup in economic growth to be comfortable.chanel outlet Hibbs estimates that the comfort territory would only come with a year-over-year 4% increase in per capita real income, though a 2% increase would bring the expected incumbent vote on election day up to 48.2%. (PHOTOS:?Political Pictures of the Week) None of these figures are determinative. Hibbs model has successfully predicted each election since 1952 to within 2.louis vuitton outlet online5 percentage points, with the exception of two misses: 1996, when Hibbs model predicted a bigger Clinton win, and 2000, when Hibbs model predicted a bigger popular vote win by Al Gore. Political scientists generally agree that campaigns do matter–though they tend to cancel each other out–and that other factors like party identification, ideology and policy also affect the final vote. But the biggest single factor in moving the polls, presidential approval and the vote, in a time of general peace, is almost surely economic performance. And Barack Obama is short on time to put some better numbers on the board.fake louis vuitton shoes
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2013年11月13日星期三

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Mitt Romney, the perpetually questioned front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination, had a rough week.gucci outlet online Three embarrassing losses to Rick Santorum in Tuesday’s non-binding contests led to questions about Romney’s conservative bona fides just in time for GOP activists, gathering at their annual Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington, to collectively grumble about it. But in two narrow, largely symbolic victories on Saturday, Romney reclaimed the headlines. Never mind the details. He was winning again.chanel handbags for sale Romney won the non-binding Maine caucuses on Saturday night with 39% of the vote, edging out small government standard-bearer Ron Paul by 3 percentage points and fewer than 200 votes. Despite his close second-place finish, the outcome was disappointing for Paul, who campaigned heavily in the state and is the only remaining GOP candidate yet to win a nominating contest. “We’re not going away,” he told supporters gathered in Portland for what clearly had been planned as a victory party. Earlier in the day, Romney dethroned Paul in the CPAC’s straw poll, winning?38% of activists’ support to Santorum’s 31%.handbags louis vuitton Paul, who won last year’s poll but did not attend CPAC this year, finished at 12% behind Newt Gingrich’s 15%. Romney also led in a national poll of conservatives conducted by CPAC and released on Saturday, beating Santorum by a narrower 27% to 25%. Neither victory moved Romney any closer to the nomination. Maine’s contest was merely a preference poll and did not allocate any delegates, which will be selected at a state convention in May.ugg boots outlet CPAC’s straw poll did not provide any accurate measure of national sentiment, and the national survey results actually showed a tightening race with Santorum. But both wins illustrated that Republicans are still able to get excited about Romney, albeit in crowds of just a few hundred in these cases, and put aside the narrative that he is struggling to close the deal. For now.
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The Vatican??s timing was ironic.fake louis vuitton While Roman Catholic bishops in the U.S. were trying to revive their moral and political clout last week by battling President Obama over contraception coverage and religious liberty, a papally endorsed symposium was underway in Rome on how the Church has to change if it wants to prevent sexual abuse crises, the very tragedy that has shriveled the stature of Catholic prelates worldwide over the past decade, especially in the U.S.handbags louis vuitton One monsignor at the Vatican gathering even suggested the hierarchy had been guilty of ??omert?,?? the Mafia code of silence, by protecting abusive priests. The Roman forum was a reminder??and the birth control clash is turning out to be one as well ?? of just how much influence the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops has lost in the 10 years since the abuse crisis erupted in America.handbags louis vuitton It hopes that its protest of a new federal rule requiring religiously affiliated institutions like Catholic hospitals and universities to provide no-cost contraception in their health insurance coverage, even if church doctrine forbids birth control, will help restore the bishops?? relevance. They did win a partial victory last Friday when Obama, acknowledging the uproar, said those institutions would no longer have to pay for the contraception coverage themselves. But the President did not fully genuflect: The compromise will still oblige religious-based employers to offer the coverage, while their insurance providers foot the bill. (MORE: Mired in the Sticky Politics of Health and Faith, Obama Shifts on Contraception) Although major Catholic groups like Catholic Charities and the Catholic Health Association accepted that revision, the bishops are holding out for more.fake ugg boots But their crusade to be exempted from the mandate is likely to fall short of its grail. If so, it??s because Obama read the Catholic flock better than its shepherds did. Granted, the bishops, led by New York Archbishop and Cardinal-elect Timothy Dolan, did get the White House to acknowledge how high-handedly and ham-handedly it had managed the contraception debate??confirming along the way the public??s wariness of the so-called liberal elite??and convinced it to craft a deal that should have been policy in the first place. Yet in his refusal to cave completely to the religious liberty campaign, Obama has illustrated the reality that the bishops no longer speak for most U.chanel outletS. Catholics??the nation??s largest religious denomination and a critical swing-voter group??on a host of moral issues, according to polls. Not on abortion or the death penalty (a majority of Catholics believe those should remain legal); on divorce or homosexuality (most say those are acceptable); on women being ordained as priests and priests getting married (ditto); or on masturbation and pre-marital sex (ditto again, Your Excellencies). (MORE: Conflict Over Obama’s Contraception Rule Intensifies) And especially not on contraception.chanel handbags for sale Ever since Pope Paul VI reaffirmed the Church??s senseless ban on birth control in 1968, few doctrines have been as vilified, ridiculed and outright ignored by Catholics ?? evidenced by a recent study showing that 98% of American Catholic women have used some form of contraception. It??s hard to believe, as the bishops would have it, that those women simply succumbed to society??s pressure to do the secular thing. They??ve decided, in keeping with their faith??s precept of exercising personal conscience, that family planning is the moral and societally responsible thing to do??for example, preventing unwanted pregnancies and therefore abortions. And it explains why a recent Public Religion Research Institute poll found most Catholics support the contraception coverage mandate even for Catholic-affiliated organizations.louis vuitton belts Presumably most endorse Friday??s compromise. Far more Evangelical Protestants, according to the PRRI survey, back the bishops than Catholics do. But that hardly makes the bishops, when it comes to the more independent Catholic vote, the same force to be reckoned with that they were in the 20th century. That is, before 2002 and the horror stories of how prelates like Cardinal Bernard Law, then Boston??s archbishop, had serially shielded alleged pedophile priests.louis vuitton handbags for sale It??s true that some bishops, like Washington Archbishop Donald Wuerl, confronted rather than coddled accused priests. But when it became clear that so many of the men in miters cared more about safeguarding the clerical corporation than about protecting kids, episcopal ??authority?? vanished like so much incense smoke??and Catholics increasingly abandoned the 2,000-year-old notion that their church and their religion are the same thing. (MORE: Obama vs. the Church) That??s essentially what Catholics like me are asking for, especially from my colleagues in the media, during episodes like the contraception and religious liberty fracas: Stop equating what the bishops say with what we think, because we??re not the obedient, monolithic bloc that newspapers and cable news networks so tiresomely insist is in “jeopardy” for this or that party whenever they smell church-state friction.replica louis vuitton When a hardline U.S. bishop calls for withholding communion from a Catholic politician who supports legalized abortion, stop assuming all Catholics have the prelate??s back rather than the pol??s. When Catholic politicians draft legislation like the religious liberty bills popping up on Capitol Hill right now, stop accepting their assertion that the birth-control ban is ??a major tenet?? of Catholic faith, as Florida Senator Marco Rubio called it this month.fake louis vuitton For the vast majority of Catholics, it isn??t. And for that matter, stop forgetting that in the 2008 election, 54% of Catholic voters ignored their bishops and backed a pro-choice presidential candidate like Obama. I certainly don??t point that out as some kind of endorsement of Obama in 2012. I??m simply noting that pundits and politicians need smarter criteria for gauging the Catholic vote??just as advisers in Obama??s White House shouldn??t have been so clueless about religious issues when they first decreed the contraception mandate.cheap gucci belts If the tragedy of the 2002 abuse crisis reminds us of anything, it??s that religion does matter in politics. Just ask the church leaders who are still paying a political price for their religious code of silence.
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Obama unveils his re-election year budget today, which will include $4 billion in deficit reduction over 10 years, tax hikes on top income, and new education grants.cheap gucci belts The GOP race turns to Michigan. Romney makes his conservative case to National Review. Why “severely conservative” was not a good phrase for Romney. Santorum plans Seattle visit on day of gay marriage signing.gucci outlet online Critics of the safety net depend on it. Greece lawmakers pass an austerity deal.
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2013年11月9日星期六

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